Our research teams at the NORCE Center for Modeling Social Systems have written two articles accepted for publication in the 2025 Social Simulation Conference Proceedings.

The first is titled “Towards an ABM on Proactive Community Adaptation for Climate Change,” and is led by Onder Gurcan (co-authors David Herbert, Christopher Frantz, Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, and me.

Abstract: We present an agent-based model (ABM) simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in an urban context. The model is applied to Bergen, Norway, represented as a complex socio-ecological system. It integrates multiple agent types: municipal government (urban planners and political actors), civil society (individual citizens), environmental NGOs and activists, and media. Agents interact during urban planning processes—particularly the evaluation and approval of new development proposals. Urban planners provide technical assessments, while politicians (organized by party) make final decisions to approve, modify, or reject projects. Environmental NGOs, activist groups, and the media shape public perception and influence policymakers through campaigns, lobbying, protests, and news coverage. Individual citizens decide whether to engage in collective action based on personal values and social influences. The model captures the resulting decision-making ecosystem and reveals feedback loops and leverage points that determine climate-adaptive outcomes. By analyzing these dynamics, we identify critical intervention points where targeted policy measures can facilitate systemic transformation toward more climate-resilient urban development.

The second is titled “From Qualitative Analysis to Algorithms – Modeling Knowledge Flow on Climate Change Adaptation,” and is led by Vanja Falck (co-authors Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Pierre Georges van Welleghem, Marta Bruno Soares, and me.

Abstract: This paper presents and illustrates a novel methodology for integrating qualitative insights into computational models to simulate knowledge flow in climate change adaptation networks. We explore how climate knowledge becomes usable in municipal decision-making processes in the context of a transnational network of municipalities called the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI). This research is part of the larger EU-Horizon project Impetus4Change. Our approach employs reflexive thematic analysis of in-depth interviews with facilitators, researchers, and municipal officials. These insights are algorithmically encoded into an agent-based model guided by assemblage theory, which conceptualizes knowledge as enacted within relational social systems. The resulting Qual2Rule approach enables the translation of narrative data into formal rules and usability scores in the model. The simulation’s key components include political gatekeeping, institutional capacity, and perceived relevance. Supplementary proxy indicators—such as governance effectiveness and climate risk indices—parametrize model inputs. This work contributes to the broader field of social simulation by offering a rigorous yet flexible method for converting complex, context sensitive data into algorithmic form. It underscores the importance of co-creation, perceived relevance, and sensitivity to local contexts in the uptake of climate adaptation knowledge. It encourages future modelling practices to embrace interpretive and participatory data sources.